27 May 2024
Photograph Mqse de Sevigné: scoopdyga.com
By Emmanuel Roussel
The 7-furlong course of the Nouvelle Piste is often considered unusual, earning it the nickname “toboggan” despite being practically flat. The most distinctive feature of the Nouvelle Piste is its almost exclusive use for the 7-furlong trip with a finish at the second post. The timings from the latest Prix du Palais-Royal (Gr3) edition, run on this course, highlight this peculiarity. All participants in this race recorded their fastest section from 3 to 2 furlongs out, known as the “T4” (fourth section). Typically, horses reach their maximum speed in the penultimate section, from 2 to 1 furlong.
Reviewing previous editions of the Prix du Palais-Royal reveals the same pattern. This is often the case on this course but rarely seen in races finishing at the first post. The conclusion is that riders, although well aware of the second-post finish, tend to engage their horses as if the finish were at the first post, and the horses stay on. Old habits die hard.
Mqse de Sevigné Rivals Skalleti
Another observation: none of the 2024 Prix du Palais-Royal contenders covered any furlong in less than 11 seconds. This isn’t due to the softened ground but likely because they went faster earlier. While comparing a 1,850-metre Gr1 to a 7-furlong Gr3 is, at best, odd, here’s what we can note between Mqse de Sevigné’s performance in the Prix d'Ispahan (Gr1) and Exxtra’s in the Prix du Palais-Royal.
The former completed her last kilometre one second slower than the latter. However, the last 3 furlongs of Édouard de Rothschild’s champion mare are a second faster than those of Anja Wilde’s filly. Essentially, the further back they come from, the more they pace themselves, even with the finish at the first post!
On a 3.6 turf, Mqse de Sevigné recorded the fastest time in the 2 and 3-furlong slots. The best times over the past five years (since tracking data became available) belong to Skalleti, who won in 2021 on a 3.3 ground in 1’53”57, which is 1.12 seconds faster than the latest winner. Here’s how their performances compare:
Considering the differences in the ground, these times are very close, except for the fourth section, where Skalleti, coming from further back, clocked 11 seconds compared to 11.5 seconds for the mare, translating to a speed of 55 km/h (65.5 km/h) versus 57.5 km/h (62.6 km/h). Mqse de Sevigné was slightly faster than her rival in the second section, the 5th last, going down the hill and nowhere else.
It’s worth noting that when Skalleti won, there were only six runners, but the front-runner Écrivain was very keen, leading everyone at a good pace before finishing last.
The problem with French races is that they are not always very selective early on, except in instances like the Ispahan 21, with a strong foreign contingent or a duel between leaders.
To better gauge performances using tracking data, a large quantity of comparable information is needed under different circumstances to establish and visualise standard times. A single piece of data without context is not often that conclusive.
Nevertheless, Skalleti’s performance was exceptional. In the final part of the race, he recorded three sub-11-second sections, while Mqse de Sevigné managed two such sections, which is already excellent.
We should also note Haya Zark’s good performance on merely soft ground and his tenacity in reclaiming third place after temporarily losing it. However, the best fraction of the race belongs to Horizon Doré, with 10.53 seconds in the penultimate furlong. A prolonged waiting race condemns one to a remarkable feat. If speed wears out more than stamina, this might not be the best tactic for a long career, as proven by those formidable front-runners in staying races abroad and Haya Zark today. His best fraction was indeed in the first 850 meters!
Sevenna’s Knight, Another Arc Contender
The connections of two Sunday winners are considering a bid for the Qatar Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe in October: Mqse de Sevigné, after her Ispahan win over 1,850 meters, and Sevenna’s Knight, who won the Prix Vicomtesse Vigier (Gr2) 2-miler. A mare capable of winning a top mile and an emerging stayer!
Generally, horses with more speed are preferred because they are more versatile and adept and also more likely to find a reserve of stamina when others can’t match their speed.
Two names stand out among 5-year-old mares like Mqse de Sevigné, who were Arc winners: Corrida in 1937 and Alpinista two years ago. Among stayers, we note Westerner’s second place in 2005 and Levmoss’s victory in 1969, after winning the Cadran and Gold Cup that year and the Royal-Oak a year earlier. These are two different types of stayers, both exceptional. Gold River, another Arc runner-up, succeeded over long distances and showed form over 1m1/2.
Alpinista was a true 1m1/2 mare, even though she raced over 2,000 meters early in her 3-year-old season. Corrida was a phenomenon, having already won the Arc a year earlier.
Mqse de Sevigné’s profile is different from these mares. It’s a unique path she's taking.
Has Sevenna’s Knight finished surprising us? His times on Sunday were much better than those in the Barbeville, over 100 meters less but on a drying 4.1 track rather than 3.6. Shembala was faster than him in the Vicomtesse Vigier's penultimate furlong. Still, the outcome was settled, and she conceded 16 hundredths in the last section after posting similar fractions to Sevenna’s Knight.
The visual impression remains good, and as the horse improves, he can undoubtedly continue to make an impact, but there’s no indication yet that he has the makings of a Gold River or a Westerner. His entry in the Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud is promising because a successful test over 1m1/2 at that level would place him in another league.
The classics for 3-year-olds over this distance are yet to be run, and here we are, aleready discussing the Arc!